Afghanistan (Part 3) – Progress
I’ve been reading the Manley Report on Canada’s involvement in Afghanistan.
The report has a number of themes that I found striking: I’ll limit this post to the mission’s lack of measurable progress.
Measurable Progress
The indications of progress included in the report are:
- The Afghan economy as grown at 10% annually.
- The number of children attending schools is currently at six million (although we aren’t told what that number was back in August ‘01, I assume it’s higher now).
- Afghanistan lingers near the bottom of the UN Human Development Index (174 out of 178, as of 2007).
- Per-capita income has doubled since 2001.
- 6.6 million Afghans don’t have enough food.
- 87% of Afghan women are illiterate, as are 57% of men.
- Five million Afghan refugees have returned home (presumably from other countries).
The report states that “living conditions in Afghanistan have seen measurable, even significant improvement,” (p. 3) it offers no measurements other than these. As far as I can tell, no source is offered for any of these statistics (other than the HDI, natch).
Most of these statistics aren’t progressive. They don’t compare progress against time. These statistics aren’t directly attributable to Canadian involvement.
So how do we know it’s all worth it? I assume that we’re doing good over there, but there’s no way of telling if we can do a better job, or even if our government officials are doing their jobs.
Canada is part of the Afghanistan Compact, which is a series of timelines and targets agreed upon by the Afghan government and donor countries. The report stats that “its targets have proved more formal than real, and performance assessments have been flimsy” (p. 19). And reading the terms (p. 78), one can understand that description: aside from target benchmarks for number of teachers, soldiers, and households with electricity, there is little or nothing that can be used to gauge our efforts.
In the recommendations, Manley et al. state that:
4. The Government should systematically assess the effectiveness of Canadian contributions and the extent to which the benchmarks and timelines of the Afghanistan Compact have been met. Future commitments should be based on those assessments.
5. The Government should provide the public with franker and more frequent reporting on events in Afghanistan, offering more assessments of Canada’s role and giving greater emphasis to the diplomatic and reconstruction efforts as well as those of the military.
I would hope that the Government goes further, offering regular quantitative reports on Canada’s non-military effect in Afghanistan. As it is, the only definite progress we can point to is a body count and a bill for close to seven billion dollars.
Lack of Coherent Leadership
The report states that there is no civilian leader
